Predicting the 2026 Middle East Business Landscape

Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is progressively considered as a combination year, in which diversification-led growth ends up being more deeply embedded in the area's economic model, reducing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Projections from major institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by resistant domestic need, continued non-oil expansion, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent development in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift toward more positive total conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects international development alleviating to 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would put the area materially ahead of the world average and slightly above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that regional threat conditions stay included and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently account for more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has actually continued to rise as federal governments expand investment in services, infrastructure, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and increasing investment in technology and AI-related facilities.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The Strategic Advantages of Advanced Market Research

Public-sector financial investment and reform remain central to sustaining this trend. Policy measures focused on bring in foreign direct financial investment, alleviating foreign ownership rules, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and decrease the region's exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil incomes are anticipated to play a helpful role in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude rates to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is forecast to rise again in the 2nd half of the year, with a full relaxing of remaining production caps most likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly encouraging of growth. Inflation is anticipated to remain low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the area in 2026. Stable rates are helping preserve real household incomes and underpin customer costs, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.